I heard a very interesting story this weekend from a very good friend of mine while sitting around a late autumn campfire. He told of a time when he was younger and was on a mountain lion hunt in southern Utah. The group had chased two large cats down into a canyon. From his vantage point he watched the hound dogs try and pick up the scent of one of the cats. After approximately thirty minutes of watching the hounds search in a nearly single file line and in the shape of a figure eight. He came to the conclusion that the lion was not there. Well five more minutes went by and he observed that one of the dogs the leader of the pack broke rank and started searching outside the path they had been on. And within moments he singled with a howl that he was on the scent trail again and sped off away from the rest of the pack. It wasn’t for quite some time later that the other dogs one by one brake the figure eight and headed off in the direction of the leader. The moral of the story relates to trading. If you do not develop a strong understanding of a sound strategy and build a solid track record with that strategy through practice and patience. You will find yourself running in circles with the pack aimlessly searching a dead ended scent trail. You need to exercise the discipline to stretch yourself and stick to staying on the fresh scent trail money leaves behind by following your game plan despite what others are doing, or saying. Too often, we see traders that rely on the latest and greatest ideas to come along without giving each ample time, attention and practice, before they are off on the next concept. This may seem like a fresh scent, but it is an endless cycle of defeat. Staying with the fresh trail is applying what you already know using the discipline to focus on building a track record. Once you can prove a change is needed then start searching for what fits your needs. But the key is STICKING TO IT, and KNOWING when the trail is old and time for a shift in direction.
